For the third year in a row, I took time in December to speak with
about a dozen ebook and digital publishing influencers about the year
that was and their predictions of what might happen in the ebook and
digital publishing industry in 2014.
What happens to the other predictions, those that didn’t make it?
Well, they end up on the cutting-room floor. In the age of online media,
there need not be information and insight cut for lack of space. So,
here are some more predictions for ebooks and digital publishing from a
diverse array of experts I spoke with this month — in no particular
order:
–
Divestitures in higher education publishing:
Higher-education publisher Cengage filed for bankruptcy in July 2013.
McGraw-Hill was acquired by private-equity firm Apollo Global Mangement
(which also, by the way, owns Cengage, but they are in different funds).
This prediction presages more financial activity in the
higher-education sector as Apollo and others attempt to wring value from
their investments while streamlining them for future growth.
– Publishers create or license their own e-reading apps:
Bluefire, the white-label e-reading app company, is gathering more and
more clients as more companies want to engage with readers outside of
the Amazon,
Apple AAPL -0.68%, Barnes & Noble and Kobo ecosystems.
– Amazon starts playing nice with publishers:
This
prediction directly contradicted other assertions in the article and
while interesting just didn’t seem likely given Amazon’s current
relationship with publishers and its overall historical business
practices.
“Amazon will begin to have an internal dialog that playing hardball
on content providers unleashes a backlash that will be unwelcome to
them,” said Joe Esposito, a digital media management consultant and the
main proponent of this prediction.
– Public libraries will increasingly buy access to large aggregations of ebooks:
Currently, managing and growing a collection of ebooks doesn’t make
financial sense for some libraries. Many ebooks are expensive and
libraries can’t re-sell them like they can with physical books they no
longer need. With aggregations of ebooks, libraries can pay a flat fee
for access to a large number of ebooks.
– There will be huge growth in digital marketing for books:
This is a trend we’re already observing. Many publishing companies have
beefed up considerably their digital marketing talent. Authors, who
play a huge role in all book marketing, have been building their online
platforms.
– Publisher margins will be under pressure:
As
Amazon gets even more powerful in the ebook and digital publishing
industry, it could demand better margins from publishers, as it has with
many of its other kinds of suppliers. Authors, too, knowing their
importance to publishing companies, may demand higher royalties for
their work.
– Number of non-bookstores selling books will increase:
Stores like Michael’s (an art and crafts store) and Urban Outfitters
have long sold books alongside other kinds of products. This trend will
continue because publishers will aggressively seek out new venues for
their wares as traditional bookstores are under pressure and generally
reducing shelf space for books.
– More publishers will start to sell ebooks directly to readers:
Some publishers already do this,
but carefully, for fear of upsetting other customers, like Barnes &
Noble and Amazon. As publishers become increasingly desperate to
develop a more diverse array of trading partners, they may try to sell
their wares directly to consumers.
– Self-publishing will continue to grow even as ebook sales at publishers stagnate:
– Amazon will buy more social companies:
Amazon acquired Goodreads,
the largest book-focused social network, in 2013. The move was an
attempt to shore up what is seen as Amazon’s greatest weakness — social
capabilities. Perhaps the company will do more to strengthen in that are
in 2014.
– Illustrated ebooks will enter the market in greater numbers as costs plummet:
This prediction seemed to contradict one other we made that seemed a
lot more likely (that illustrated ebooks will be severely challenged in
2014). The idea here is that publishers will realize that they need to
produce illustrated ebooks at extremely low costs if they are going to
be able to sell enough of them to make a profit. The technology will
soon exist for them to do that and they will flood the market with
inexpensive illustrated ebooks.
– Amazon will come out with a set-top box and phone, creating an ecosystem of devices:
While a juicy prediction, it was in Brad Stone’s recent book on Amazon, The Everything Store. We wanted our “ten bold predictions” to be, well, bold.
– Amazon will show a profit in 2014:
Amazon has,
throughout its 20-year history, shown a profit now and again, though not
a large one. Will 2014 be the much-anticipated year when the company
delights investors by starting to develop healthy profit margins?
– Amazon will continue to expand into publishing books:
Amazon Publishing wasn’t a complete success in 2013, according to many
observers. In a move that had many thinking the company was retreating
from its New York-based, big-time publishing aspirations, Larry
Kirshbaum, who headed the operation, announced his departure; he was replaced by a Seattle-based Amazon editor.
– More book publishing start-ups will fail:
Several failed in 2013, including much ballyhooed Small Demons (which
apparently is still seeking a last-minute infusion of cash to continue
on).
– Shift to tablets and smartphones will have a negative effect on ebook sales:
More people are buying smartphones and tablets and fewer people are
buying e-readers. Research has shown that people who own e-readers and
use them for reading tend to buy more ebooks than those who own tablets
only and use them for e-reading. At the same time, someone who buys a
tablet or smartphone and didn’t have one to begin with could be more apt
to buy ebooks now that they own a portable device on which to read
them.
But will they?
We’ll check back in a year to find out.
No comments :
Post a Comment